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Grayzee’s Week 11 Picks + Week 10 Recap

The NFL is getting quite a bit easier to predict as the year goes along, so my record has caught up with that.  Let’s go over what happened in Week 10.

SEA 22 – ARI 16.  The Seahawks 22-16 victory wasn’t too far off from my prediction of a 20-13 Seattle win, as their defense destroyed Adrian Peterson and held him to 29 yards (and a pitiful 1.4 yards per carry).  The Seahawks are 6-3, and got a crucial win to keep up in the NFC playoff race.

TB 15 – NYJ 10.  I predicted the score to be way too high for a QB matchup of Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick (each playing their former team, oddly enough).  The journeymen QBs both had underwhelming days, but the Bucs finally got a win in the end.  Will the Jets just ride the tank the rest of the season?

NO 47 – BUF 10.  This Saints team is legit, man.  When they started 0-2, I expected them to be the same old Saints, have Drew Brees do all the work while the defense lags behind, ultimately finish 7-9.  But they’re now 7-2, and their defense is great, while their running game is even better.  It was very weird to see both Mark Ingram AND Alvin Kamara be among the league’s leaders in rushing Week 10.  As for the Bills, you’re starting Nathan Peterman now for some reason.  The playoff-less streak lives on!

DET 38 – CLE 24.  While Detroit looked pretty bad early on, they ultimately remembered they were playing the Browns.  This was a crucial win for the Lions if they want to compete with the Vikings in the NFC North.  As for the Browns, can you actually match Detroit’s 2008 team this year by going 0-16?

TEN 24 – CIN 20.  The Titans may win ugly, but they win.  This is now their 4th win in a row.  Their matchup vs. Jacksonville at the end of the year will be interesting; it may very well determine who will win the AFC South.  As for the Bengals, your talented roster is once again failing thanks to Marvin Lewis, who should’ve been fired ages ago.  I guess that incompetent o-line helps as well.  Hey, how’s Andrew Whitworth doing in L.A.?

GB 23 – CHI 16.  I trusted the Bears to get it done at home against the Rodgers-less Packers, but they let me down.  However, the Packers have amazingly won their 8th straight game in Chicago (that’s what happens when you have Rodgers I guess).  But in this game, Brett Hundley ultimately did enough to get it done.  Maybe the Packers can get Aaron Rodgers back and make a push for the playoffs.

JAC 20 – LAC 17 (OT).  In a game the Chargers were probably supposed to win, they found a way to Charger it up and lose.  They even broke the Jags tradition of losing on even weeks, which I predicted to happen.  Despite Blake Bortles gifting the Chargers with 2 freshly baked turnovers (including one that should’ve ended the game), the Chargers still lost.  The Jags meanwhile, escape with an ugly win,.

MIN 38 – WAS 30.  The Vikings leap-frogged their way to victory in an offensive explosion.  Adam Thielen is having a breakout season, and despite Case Keenum’s 2 interceptions, he threw 4 touchdowns in an otherwise efficient game.  The Skins may have been taken out of playoff contention with this loss, while Minnesota is looking quietly like a Super Bowl contender.

PIT 20 – IND 17.  I thought Indy would pull off an upset here, and early on, it looked like they would.  However, their offense ultimately stalled in the second half, while the Steelers got an opportunity to get a game-winning field goal.  Yes, the Steelers won ugly again, but they’re 7-2 and one of the top AFC contenders now.  As for the Colts, it’s been a long season.  Hopefully you’ll get Luck back next year.

LAR 33 – HOU 7.  The Rams dominated in back-to-back weeks, as their defense is now dominating equally as well as their offense.  That could just be the product of playing the Giants and the Watson-less Texans, but nobody can deny that their offense is one of the league’s best attacks.  Robert Woods with 171 yards and 2 TDs?  He was never that good in Buffalo, but he’s great here!  Credit Woods, but of course credit Sean McVay and the excellent job he’s doing.

SF 31 – NYG 21.  As I predicted, the 49ers got their first win of the season against my pitiful New York Giants.  Giants ownership went on to make excuses for embattled coach Ben McAdoo, saying they have to “evaluate things at the end of the season”.  Clearly, fans such as myself have seen enough of McAdope, and I was extremely disappointed they didn’t fire him after this game (the team clearly quit on him).  As for the 49ers, congrats on your first W.  This has been a rebuilding season, but the future could be bright.

ATL 27 – DAL 7.  I predicted an Atlanta win, but I didn’t think the Cowboys would perform that bad.  The next few games will truly be a test to see if Dallas can survive the Elliott suspension and make the NFC Wild Card (let’s face it… they’re not beating the Eagles at this point).  As for the Falcons, you stay alive in the NFC playoffs at 5-4.  Atlanta will certainly need to get on a roll though if they want to make it back.

NE 41 – DEN 16.  I had the Pats winning 24-14, but clearly that was being generous to Denver.  Their defense has appeared to be just an incompetent as their offense in back-to-back games.  Granted, they were heavy underdogs in both games.  But they couldn’t even keep things competitive, and one of September’s best teams in now one of November’s worst.  As for the Pats, their run to the AFC’s #1 or #2 seed continues.

CAR 45 – MIA 21.  The Panthers crushed a collapsing Dolphins team on Monday Night Football.  Why were the Dolphins on primetime three weeks in a row, anyway?  This is why you’re losing ratings, NFL.

After a decent 10-4 week of picks, here are my picks for Week 11.

TEN @ PIT.  It will be a true test for the Titans, going up against a classic AFC juggernaut in the Steelers on the road.  Unfortunately for Tennessee, I don’t think they will pass this test, as the Steelers are a strong team at home and should do enough on offense to win.  Pittsburgh will win 27-23.

JAC @ CLE.  And with that, the Jaguars promptly take control of first place of the AFC South.  This could very well be an upset for the Browns if they’re able to take advantage of Blake Bortles mistakes, but I ultimately think the Jags defense will be too much for Cleveland.  Jacksonville will win 17-10.

TB @ MIA.  In a game that was supposed to take place during Week One, give me the Bucs to win here.  It really could go to either team, as both teams are a mess.  However, the Bucs look like slightly less of a mess, plus they’re getting Mike Evans back.  Tampa will win 24-20.

BAL @ GB.  This is risky without Aaron Rodgers, but give me Green Bay here.  The Ravens may be coming off their bye week, but they’re playing in Lambeau, and have lost 4 out of 6 prior to the bye.  They’re a mediocre team, and I think Brett Hundley can do just enough to beat them.  Green Bay wins 26-24.

DET @ CHI.  The Lions will continue to make a playoff push, while the Bears continue to fade away.  Detroit simply can’t fall into this trap game, and have to get business taken care of on the road.  The Rodgers-less Packers did it, so why can’t they do it?  Lions win 28-23.

LAR @ MIN.  This is going to be arguably the most intriguing matchup of the week, two 7-2 teams squaring off.  If I had guts, I’d pick the Rams, but I gotta go with the home team in Minnesota.  Their offense has found a decent passing attack with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, and I think they will win by a score of 34-31.

ARI @ HOU.  The Texans appear to have no signs of life after getting curb-stomped by the Rams.  I expect the Cardinals to get things done here in the backup bowl, though it obviously wouldn’t surprise me if Houston won.  But I’m sticking with Arizona, 24-21.

KC @ NYG.  Enjoy your 2nd bye week in a row, Chiefs.  38-7 win in my lock of the week.  Fire McAdope!

WAS @ NO.  The Saints are on fire, and the Skins are going to get blazed.  New Orleans appears to show no signs of slowing down, and I predict they will win 33-24 and continue to define themselves as Super Bowl contenders in a highly competitive NFC.

BUF @ LAC.  The Bills may have suffered back-to-back humiliating losses, and yes, they’re making the stupid move of starting Nathan Peterman over Tyrod Taylor.  But I’m about to hit that upset of the week button, as they’re playing the gift that keeps on giving in the Chargers.  Nathan Peterman will get the W in his first career start, aided by some special teams blunder from the Bolts.  Bills win 23-20.

CIN @ DEN.  Ugh, both these teams are a mess.  If I had to pick a winner though, it’d be Denver.  They have a great home field advantage, and their defense should have a much easier time going up against that terrible Cincy o-line than teams like the Eagles and Pats.  Denver wins 21-17.

NE @ OAK.  This Mexico City game was marked on the calendar earlier this year as a game the Pats could possibly slip up on.  However, they are currently red hot, while the Raiders have been one of the NFL’s bigger disappointments.  I’ll pick the Pats to win 34-27.

My Pick Record this Season: 85-62 (10-4 last week)

My Lock of the Week Record: 7-3

My Upset of the Week Record: 2-8 (ouch)

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