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Grayzee’s Week 6 Picks + Week 5 Recap

My picks last week were trash.  They were horrendous.  So, let’s go over them.

NE 19 – TB 14.  So in my first L of the week, you could blame a lot on Nick Folk.  I should’ve seen it coming, as Folk was terrible against the Giants the week before.  Still, the Bucs’ offense should’ve been more potent with Jameis Winston playing at home.

IND 26 – SF 23 (OT).  I got this game right, and I barely got it right.  In a QB battle of Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer, the Colts appeared to have saved their season and are at 2-3.  Perhaps getting Andrew Luck back will jump start this team.  As for the 49ers, the rebuild continues into 2018.

NYJ 17 – CLE 14.  The Jets were expected to be a team that would stink this year.  There was offseason talk of 0-16, but here they are at 3-2, the same record as the Patriots.  It was cool to see Myles Garrett in action, but the Browns are back it with the QB struggles.  Deshone Kizer has started his career with a 3 TD to 9 INT ratio.  He was benched, and the Jets got out with a win.

JAC 30 – PIT 9.  5 interceptions, Ben.  Five.  And I was starting him in fantasy, too.  And I lost by 1 point.

LAC 27 – NYG 22.  Speaking of 5, my favorite team the Giants has 5 losses.  That’s even more losses than receivers they have injured.  The season is over in October, which is quite a miserable but true reality.  As for the Chargers, they managed to escape with a win (barely).

CIN 20 – BUF 16.  Right when I bought into the Bills’ hype (at least for one week), they let me down by losing to Cincy.  The Buffalo offense was given a reality check; they’re not that good.  That 3-1 start might be similar to what the Rams were last year, in that they kinda fall apart afterward.

CAR 27 – DET 24.  The Panthers have done something that is very tough to do in the NFL, which is nab back-to-back road victories.  And they were against the Patriots and Lions no less, which are two teams that will probably finish with solid records.  The Panthers are 4-1, and could be on track to win a competitive NFC South.  As for the Lions, this one stings.  You lost some ground to Green Bay, but can you finally challenge them for a division title by the end?

MIA 16 – TEN 10.  Matt Cassell was simply incapable of leading Tennessee to a win, as they got beat by the oft-booed Jay Cutler.  Tennessee desperately needs Mariota back if they want to finally get back to playing postseason football.

BAL 30 – OAK 17.  Speaking of teams that are demoralized without their star QB, picking the Raiders to win without Derek Carr was a bad call for me.  He is probably going to be out of the starting the lineup for a few weeks, which is a bad sign for the Raiders.  As for the Ravens, they finally sparked their offense with some deep passes to Mike Wallace.  It’s a much-needed win for them.

SEA 16 – LA 10.  *Sighs*  Well, so much for buying into the Rams.  The Seahawks proved that their defense can still shut down an explosive offense (is the Rams offense really explosive though… or were the first few weeks a fluke?).  Jared Goff had a 48.9 passer rating, and LA lost to the team they normally beat at home.

GB 35 – DAL 31.  When you give Aaron Rodgers a minute, he’ll punish you.  That’s a lesson the Cowboys have now been taught twice, as an intriguing matchup in Jerry World met the hype.  I thought the home-field advantage plus having a more balanced team would help Dallas get the win… but Aaron Rodgers obviously had other plans.

KC 42 – HOU 34.  Who would’ve thought that Alex Smith would be leading the MVP chase at the start of the season?  He’s got his Chiefs at 5-0.  Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense stepped up in the 4th quarter, but by then it was too late.

MIN 20 – CHI 17.  Mitch Trubisky’s debut wasn’t great statistically.  He threw for only 128 yards, 1 TD and an INT.  However, he did make some great throws that were negated by penalties.  Jordan Howard only got 19 touches, I expected a lot more to ease in Trubisky.  Also, very clever TD celebration by the Vikings.  But you guys have some QB problems.

Time to rebound from those terrible picks in Week 6.

PHI @ CAR.  The week begins with two red-hot 4-1 teams in an intriguing Thursday night match-up.  To me, the Panthers have proven that they’re legit and that they can get a close win at home here, 27-24.  Of course now, they’ll probably betray me and lose.  Just like the Bills did last week.

CHI @ BAL.  The Ravens get another relatively easy match after facing E.J. Manuel’s Raiders last week.  The Bears have proven that they aren’t quite ready to win yet, and so the Ravens should take care of business and win at home, 23-17.

GB @ MIN.  If the Packers managed to beat Dallas on the road, they can do the same with Minnesota… right?  The Vikings barely managed to beat the Bears on Monday night, plus they’re playing with shorter rest.  Give me the Pack to win 34-24.

SF @ WAS.  Washington is well-rested after the bye, and through their first four weeks they proved to be quite good for a 2-2 team.  They have Kirk Cousins, and should beat the team that wants Kirk Cousins pretty easily, by a score of 30-14.

DET @ NO.  The Lions lost a close one at home last week, and have fell to 3-2.  But they’ve proven to be quite comfortable on the road so far this year, winning both their games outside of Detroit.  The Saints may be fresh off their bye and playing at home, but I trust the Lions more in this game.  They will win 30-27 in my upset of the week (New Orleans is the 4.5 point favorite).

MIA @ ATL.  The Falcons will put that loss to the Bills behind them, and after a nice bye week rest, they make easy work of Jay Cutler’s ‘Phins.  They win 28-13 in my lock of the week.

CLE @ HOU.  The Texans played a good game at home against Kansas City… well at least Deshaun Watson did.  In the 4th quarter.  But the defense should rebound against Cleveland, and they should get an easy win at home, 27-17.  Even if it’s without J.J. Watt, and it really does suck to lose him again.

NE @ NYJ.  Trap game potential?  The Patriots have one of the league’s most talented rosters, and the Jets have one of the league’s least talented rosters.  But here we are 5 weeks through the season, and both teams are 3-2.  But let’s be honest with ourselves, is Josh McCown going to beat Tom Brady?  Even if it’s at home, the answer is a resounding no, and the Pats win 30-17.

TB @ ARI.  The Bucs’ have had problems at kicker, but the Cardinals have had problems with just about everything.  Signing Adrian Peterson likely won’t help them beat Tampa here, as the Bucs have a decent balance on offense and defense.  That’s something the Cardinals have seemed to lack as of late, and so I’m taking Tampa to win 28-24.

LA @ JAC.  Last week, Jacksonville put up a dominant defensive performance, while the Rams looked like the Rams from last year.  Granted, that was against a tough Seattle defense.  But the Jags’ defense is tough too, and I expect them to take care of business along with Leonard Fournette.  Jacksonville will win 27-20.

LAC @ OAK.  Last week, the Chargers finally got their first win.  But they still looked like a bad team, missing out on 3rd down conversions, and allowing stupid things to happen like that safety.  The Raiders are pretty devastated without #4, but I still expect them to beat the Chargers 24-17.

PIT @ KC.  This has got to be the game of the week.  Many people will want to count out Pittsburgh here, but let’s not forget how they marched out of Arrowhead with a win last year in the playoffs.  That being said, I’m picking the Chiefs to win 27-23 and stay undefeated.  Alex Smith is playing at an MVP level, while Big Ben is… throwing 5 interceptions.

NYG @ DEN.  So, that’s two 0-6 starts since New York has won the Super Bowl.  The Giants need to clean the house and fire everyone, as this ridiculousness makes that Super Bowl feel like 30 years ago.  Denver’s defense is way too much for the Giants to handle, and don’t get me started on how poorly the Giants defense is playing.  The Broncos win 27-10.

IND @ TEN.  Both Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota have been ruled out, which is rough for both these teams.  These QB injuries could ultimately lead to the Jags winning the AFC South.  But for now, I’ll pick the Titans to break the “Colt Curse” (they haven’t beaten Indy since 2011).  They have a more balanced team and are playing at home, so they will win 23-17.

My Pick Record This Season: 44-33 (4-10 last week… ouch!)

My Lock of the Week Record: 3-2

My Upset of the Week Record: 2-3

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