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Grayzee’s Week 4 Predictions and Week 3 Recap

Week 3 was full of many upsets, and I think many people had a tough week.  However, I managed to do okay, going 8-8 when a lot of people dipped below .500 with their predictions.  Let’s get into the games.

LA 41 – SF 39.  Man, I didn’t give this matchup enough credit.  The Rams and 49ers played a very exciting game, and I have to say, Jared Goff doesn’t look like a bust.  This Rams team still has lots of work to do (like beating teams that are not the Luck-less Colts and the 49ers).  However, I think they could possibly contend for the division by next year.  As for the 49ers, they played a close game, and shoutout to Carlos Hyde for helping my fantasy team.

JAC 44 – BAL 7.  So I figured I’d start the week off 2-0 and that the Ravens would get an easy win.  Well, that didn’t happen.  Blake Bortles threw for 4 TDs and no INTs, which is definitely not a prototypical Blake Bortles stat-line.  My words before this game “Their (The Ravens) defense will be way too much for a QB like Bortles to handle”.  Nope.

BUF 26 – DEN 16.  Another shocker, as a team that I thought was tanking, beat the red-hot Broncos and is starting 2-1.  Trevor Siemian went from hero to zero, throwing 0 TDs and 2 INTs, as the 2nd of many upsets occurred.

CHI 23 – PIT 17 (OT).  No one was probably expecting the Steelers to lose to the Mike Glennon-led Bears.  However, that is precisely what happened.  Jordan Howard went back to his rookie season form, rushing for 138 yards and 2 TDs.  At least AB had a decent day for me in fantasy.

NO 34 – CAR 13.  The Saints weren’t going to get off to another 0-3 start, and they practically kept their season alive with a nice win over Carolina.  It was probably a nice sight for Saints fans to see their defense show up on the road, and their offense had a nice, balanced attack to get a convincing W.

MIN 34 – TB 17.  If I had known Sam Bradford was out, I probably would’ve picked the Bucs to win this game.  However, I picked Minnesota, and Case Keenum rewarded my pick with probably the best game of his career (369 yards and 3 TDs).

IND 31 – CLE 28.  This was a game where a lot of people picked the Browns to get a W due to Luck’s injury (me included).  I thought Kizer would win the QB battle against Jacoby Brissett, but Brissett proved me wrong, rushing for two touchdowns and adding another one through the air.

NYJ 20 – MIA 6.  The upsets keep rolling out, as the Jets apparently don’t know how to tank right.  Their defense held Miami to just 6 points, proving that they will be the true strength of this Jets’ team going forward.

NE 36 – HOU 33.  I don’t think anyone expected this game to be this close, as this almost was yet another L for most people in their picks.  Tom Brady did more Tom Brady things, tossing 5 TDs against a great Texans defense.  It looks like losing Julian Edelman won’t be an issue for their offense.

ATL 30 – DET 26.  I bought into the Lions at home here, as Matthew Stafford had a decent game against my Giants despite his poor stat line, and the defense did great as well.  However, the Falcons offense is quite a bit better than the Giants, and Matt Ryan won the battle of the elite QBs named Matt.

PHI 27 – NYG 24.  A rookie kicker made a 61-yard field goal to win the game, Odell acted like an idiot again, and the defense (the supposed strength of the team) choked when the offense actually showed up for once.  Eli Manning unleashed his 2011 form in the 4th quarter, but he derped around with 2 interceptions and 0 points in the first 3 quarters.  As a Giants fan, I’m already sick of this season.  McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese should be out of the building, and a mini-rebuild has to take place.

TEN 33 – SEA 27.  A lot of people were picking the Seahawks here, and I’m not sure exactly why.  They BARELY beat the 49ers the week before, and the Titans had home-field advantage in this game and were coming off a great win.  Their offense continues to look good (despite Corey Davis’s injury).  As for Seattle, Russell Wilson looked like a beast, so there’s that.

KC 24 – LAC 10.  The Chiefs simply handled business against a team that was better than them, in a typical Chiefs style win.  Also, the Chargers in L.A. is an absolute embarrassment to the NFL.  https://www.sbnation.com/2017/9/24/16359006/chiefs-chargers-chant-los-angeles

GB 27 – CIN 24 (OT).  Here’s another game many people didn’t see being this close.  I was watching this one when the Bengals got up 21-7, and I thought “Is the NFL on drugs today?”.  However, the Pack won in the end, avoiding a terrible embarrassment at home.

WAS 27 – OAK 10.  Pulling through with that upset of the week!  In reality, there were about 5 upsets more shocking than this one.  However, the Raiders were indeed favorites.  I thought Kirk Cousins playing at home against a pedestrian Raiders defense would work to his favor, and that’s what happened.

DAL 28 – ARI 17.  This was an entertaining game to watch for most of it, but picking the Cards to upset here didn’t work.  Dallas appeared to recover smoothly from last week, as the Cardinals rushing attack was very limited with David Johnson’s injury.

Now, let’s get into my Week 4 picks.

CHI @ GB.  This should be an easy one, but the Packers won in a game they could’ve easily lost last week, and the Bears beat the Steelers.  However, I’m playing it safe.  The Packers are playing at Lambeau, and in a matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Mike Glennon.  The Packers will win 31-17.

NO @ MIA (London).  The Dolphins got embarrassed last week by the Jets, and the Saints got a great win against the Panthers.  Since this game is at a neutral site, I’ll go with the team that is riding it hot.  I definitely trust Drew Brees over Jay Cutler anyway, and they win 28-23.

CAR @ NE.  The Pats were nearly beaten by Houston last week, but they should rebound against a team that struggled mightily last week without a top player in Greg Olsen.  Tom Brady tears up yet another defense, and New England wins 35-27 in my lock of the week.

JAC @ NYJ.  Feels weird to say the Jaguars will start off 3-1, but I think they do just that.  After a resounding win against the Dolphins, the Jets will probably realize this season’s mission statement again: Tank.  I’m banking on the talented Jags defense to be too much for Josh McCown to handle, as you can’t really rely on Blake Bortles to put up the numbers he did last week.  Jacksonville wins 24-13.

TEN @ HOU.  Make no mistake, the AFC South should be the Titans’ division this year.  However, playing at Houston in a bump along the path.  Their defense is going to rebound, even while playing another talented QB.  Corey Davis has been ruled out again, and while Rishard Matthews is nice, I’m going to pick Houston to win 27-24.

PIT @ BAL.  Both the Steelers and Ravens come off humiliating losses, and I’ll pick the home team here to redeem itself.  I was not exactly worried about Pittsburgh “playing down” to their opponents after their slim victory against the Browns in Week One.  But then they lost to the Bears two weeks later.  Give me the Ravens to beat their rivals 23-21 (JTuck kicking those field goals).

CIN @ CLE.  In a battle of the two 0-3 Ohio teams, give me the Bengals.   I trusted the Browns to win last week, and they let me down.  The Bengals almost beat the Packers at Lambeau, as they finally appear to have some offensive attack going.  Cincy will win 28-24.

DET @ MIN.  The Lions were oh-so-close to winning, while the Vikes were led to a blowout victory by… Case Keenum?  It’s still questionable whether Bradford or Keenum will start this week, but I think this Lions team is angry after last week and has a road win in them.  Give me Detroit to win 30-24, no matter who is starting for Minnesota.

LAR @ DAL.  The Rams’ two wins this year came against less than stellar competition.  Playing in Jerry World isn’t going to be easy for this young team, but I think Jared Goff can have a decent game against that Dallas secondary.  But Dak Prescott will just be better.  Dallas wins 30-24.

BUF @ ATL.  The Bills got a crazy upset week last week, while the Falcons were one Golden Tate knee away from losing.  However, the Falcons are just a much better team than Buffalo, and they are playing at home.  Give me the Falcons to win in a 37-14 blowout.

PHI @ LAC.  The Chargers just aren’t winning games.  Many people had them as an AFC Wild Card sleeper, but I knew these guys would be the same old Chargers.  And against the Eagles, they just don’t have much of a chance.  Give me the Eagles to win 31-21.

SF @ ARI.  The 49ers just aren’t a good team, but they’re trending upwards.  The Cardinals may be a shell of their offense with David Johnson, but like I said, they’re a better team and they’re playing at home.  Give me the Cards to win 27-21.

NYG @ TB.  As a Giants fan, I hedged my bets last week by picking Philly.  But I need one upset of the week, and in this desperate situation for the Giants, I’m picking them to not start 0-4.  The Giants may be 3 point underdogs, but their offense seemed to finally come alive last week.  And against a team that gave up 34-points to the Keenum-led Vikings, give me the Gmen to win 27-24.

OAK @ DEN.  The Broncos’ home field advantage has worked for them the first two weeks.  Despite a bad L last week, I think the Broncos can get a nice win against Oakland, who had a very disappointing loss last week.  That Broncos defense will be too much for Derek Carr to handle.

IND @ SEA.  I’ve mentioned many times in my posts that I’m not a big fan of Seattle this year, but at home against Jacoby Brissett?   Yeah, give me Seattle to win 34-24.  Russell Wilson looked good last week, so he can definitely repeat that success against the Colts’ D.

WAS @ KC.  The Chiefs are 3-0, and appear to be a legit competitor in the AFC.  While I picked Washington to get it done last week, and they did indeed do that, I think playing on the road against that defense will be too much for Kirk Cousins.  Give me Kansas City to win 24-20.

My Pick Record This Season: 30-17.

My Lock of the Week, “A.K.A. Survivor Pick” Record: 2-1.  (Those freakin’ Dolphins.)

My Upset of the Week Record: 2-1.

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